Paul Saffo has the cover of the latest issue of Harvard Business Review, with an essay on "Six Rules for Accurate Effective Forecasting" (normally not accessible online without a subscription, but for the moment it's available to the general public.)

If you've worked for Paul, some of the rules will ring a bell; if not, it's a good introduction to the craft of forecasting, and offers some insight into how futurists think about their work:

People at cocktail parties are always asking me for stock tips, and then they want to know how my predictions have turned out. Their requests reveal the common but fundamentally erroneous perception that forecasters make predictions. We don’t, of course: Prediction is possible only in a world in which events are preordained and no amount of action in the present can influence future outcomes. That world is the stuff of myth and superstition. The one we inhabit is quite different – little is certain, nothing is preordained, and what we do in the present affects how events unfold, often in significant, unexpected ways.