• "Forward Engagement ® is a concept designed to describe a process of thinking systematically about complex, interactive, and longer-range issues in a way that is applicable to public policy."
  • "This site contains information and tools for foresighting activities, specializing on society and technology issues. It also serves as part of my external digital brain and memory. The Futurist Databaseblog contains latest news (and news archives since 2007) about new technologies, scientific discussions, society, politics and ELSI issues in English, German and Dutch."
    (tags: future blog)
  • "[T]he thesis is an account of the work I undertook in developing a new method for scenario-building – though in fact, the method, as it developed, ended up closer to causal layered analysis than to scenario planning. (The term "methodology" here refers to the procedure I used for developing the scenario method.) For those working in the area of foresight, the method developed may be a useful alternative to the standard scenario planning process. Compared with the common scenario planning approaches, Scenario Network Mapping (SNM for short) is designed to be easier to do by non-experts, more flexible, and more suitable for small organizations, industries, and regions. It involves four half-day workshops, plus some preliminary and follow-up work. However, it requires the participation of a very wide range of stakeholders."
  • "Today’s societal developments are often influenced by improbable events with possibly high impact. This increasing complexity and uncertainty is reflected in the growing demand for tools and approaches for anticipatory or strategic intelligence, such as scenario analyses, Delphi surveys and modelling and simulation tools…. Often important events are preceded by a number of weak signals, that individually have been observed and noticed by different people, but not been put together to a larger picture. This means that often only from hindsight pieces of the puzzle are put together. This project, Scanning for Emerging Science and Technology Issues (SESTI), aims at further understanding the way these weak signals can be identified and collected. Furthermore, by collecting weak signals from different sources and people, this project aims to enable and facilitate the sense-making process early enough for policy to be prepared and react in advance."