• "Familiar faces from the federal government will be tested Tuesday, Feb. 16, to see how well Washington, D.C., would handle a cyber-crisis. Pass or fail, their performance will be seen by spectators — and then broadcast on CNN for the world to see. The Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC), a nonprofit that develops multiparty solutions in public policy, will host Cyber Shockwave, a simulated cyber-attack on the United States, during an exercise at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel in Washington, D.C."
  • Emergency exercises are worth the effort. Exercises identify areas that are proficient and those that need improvement. Lessons learned from exercises can be used to revise operational plans and provide a basis for training to improve proficiency in executing those plans. This course is designed to introduce you to the fundamentals of exercise design and to prepare you to design and conduct a small functional exercise for your organization. It addresses: The value of conducting exercises. The components of a comprehensive exercise program. The exercise development process ¾ development tasks, organization of the design team, exercise documentation, and the steps in designing an exercise.
  • But suppose integration doesn't change the culture of underperformance? What if integration inadvertently created that culture in the first place? This is the startling hypothesis of Stuart Buck's Acting White: The Ironic Legacy of Desegregation. Buck argues that the culture of academic underachievement among black students was unknown before the late 1960s. It was desegregation that destroyed thriving black schools where black faculty were role models and nurtured excellence among black students. In the most compelling chapter of Acting White, Buck describes that process and the anguished reactions of the black students, teachers, and communities that had come to depend on the rich educational and social resource in their midst.
  • Thus, understanding how and why we experience regret and how regret influences choices and behaviors are important research questions. Previous research on regret has, however, to a large extent relied on younger participants and to date little is known about how and if the experience and anticipation of regret changes over the adult life-span…. This project uses both experimental and field studies to address how regret and the behavioral consequences of regret change with aging.
  • The Decision, Risk and Management Sciences program supports scientific research directed at increasing the understanding and effectiveness of decision making by individuals, groups, organizations, and society. Disciplinary and interdisciplinary research, doctoral dissertation research, and workshops are funded in the areas of judgment and decision making; decision analysis and decision aids; risk analysis, perception, and communication; societal and public policy decision making; management science and organizational design.
  • Scenario Discovery is a valuable approach to participatory, computer-assisted scenario development. It is useful for many hard, deeply uncertain policy problems such as climate change and energy planning. This project aims to advance scenario discovery methodology by applying novel algorithms that can provide significant new capabilities and then evaluating how decision makers respond to the results. It, thus, will simultaneously improve both the technical capacity of the modeling and the ability for decision makers to work effectively with the models.
  • Decision makers in fields as diverse as business, industry, law enforcement, and military/political intelligence rely on expert forecasts to help make important decisions. The purpose of these forecasts is to communicate information about a target situation in a format that is useful for decision makers. Unfortunately, many expert forecasts are probabilistic in nature and rife with analytic uncertainty…. Surprisingly, there has been relatively little research focused on how best to communicate these forecasts to decision makers. One issue of particular concern is how experts should represent analytic uncertainty and how uncertainty information is understood in the context of supporting narrative information…. This research implements nine experiments that examine the best ways of presenting analytic uncertainty, to assess the reasoning strategies used by decision makers, and to understand how individual differences in numeracy and cognitive style affect the use of expert forecasts.