CBS MoneyWatch blogger Larry Swedroe glosses David Freedman's Wrong and Philip Tetlock's Expert Political Judgment to explain why expert advice goes wrong, and why experts have incentives to oversell their certainty and expertise:

Most of us want certainty, even when we know, logically, that it doesn’t exist. With investing, it’s a desire to believe that there’s someone who can protect us from bear markets and the devastating losses that can result. However, we’ve seen on numerous occasions that experts simply aren’t that expert. Of course, the next question is: “Why?”